Sovereign & Country Risk

Course Objectives

• The overall goal of this two day intermediate level workshop is for participants to have a structured approach to the analysis of sovereign and country risk in both mature and developing markets.
• Specifically, the workshop will equip participants to:
• Understand the key drivers of country and sovereign risk in both mature and emerging markets
• Identify qualitative, quantitative and market indicators of vulnerability
• Recognise the impact of sovereign support and country risk on other exposures, including public sector entities
• Review the lessons learned from the current and previous crisis in various regions of the world.

Target Audience

Analysts, fixed income, banking, insurance and other professionals with exposure to sovereign and country risk but lacking a formal economics background.

Content

ANALYTIC OVERVIEW

Historical context

• History of sovereign default and crisis
• Current and previous economic crises: causes, effects and differing impact on mature and emerging markets
• Sovereign issuer analysis vs. country risk encompassing private sector
• Role of IMF and other multilateral bodies.

Perspectives on analysis

• Rating agency sovereign methodology, capacity and willingness to service debt, foreign and local currency ratings
• Transfer and convertibility risk: FX and local currency ratings, country ceilings
• Market indicators: CDS, bond and equity indicators
• Structured approach to analysis: purpose, payback, risks and structure.

RISK ANALYSIS

Macro-economic policies and performance

• Economic growth, inflation, income levels
• Monetary and fiscal policies
• Foreign exchange regime risk profiles
• Market rates and purchasing power parity
• Key performance indicators: benchmarks in mature and emerging economies

Public finances

• Fiscal policy and budgetary flexibility; primary budget balance; public sector
• Sustainable debt and debt service burdens
• Contingent risks: pension and health care, infrastructure

External finances

• Balance of payments: trade, current a/c
• Export and import composition and trends
• Reliance on volatile receipts e.g. commodities or remittances
• External financing needs: exposure to volatile capital flows (portfolio capital and short term debt)
• Net external debt burden relative to GDP and current account receipts
• Central bank reserves and liquidity ratio.

Structural, political and governance risks

• Savings and investment, capital flows
• Business environment, trade and economic diversity and stability
• Political risk: regime effectiveness and legitimacy, income disparity, conflict risk
• International trade and political links
• Governance: legal system, property rights, judicial process and corruption.

Financial sector

• Macro-prudential and financial strength indicators
• Size and strength of banking system
• Financial sector and overall intermediation levels, debt and equity capital markets
• Regulatory responses to banking crisis.

Public sector entities (PSE)

• Types of PSE: Government agencies; autonomous public bodies, state owned companies, not for profit companies fulfilling social missions
• Rating criteria and notching down from sovereign or up from stand alone: dependent and non dependent PSE’s
• Types of support: statutory guarantee, specific guarantee, written commitment, no written commitment
• Criteria for analysis: legal status, integration, strategic importance, control, ability to support.

STRUCTURE

• Default and restructuring events, distressed debt exchanges
• Private claims vs. official and multilateral creditors e.g. Paris club, IMF
• Export credit agency buyer and supplier credit
• Transfer risk and country risk insurance
• Setting country limits.

Workshop Times